Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of June 25th through June 29th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of June 25th through June 29th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, June 25^th

• 3:00pm USD New Home Sales 369K versus 347K expected. The currency rose overall.

Tuesday, June 26^th

• 9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 15.6B versus 13.1B expected. The currency rose.
• 10:00am GBP Inflation Report Hearings – BOE Governor Mervyn King said that, “Having one overall supervisory authority that didn’t feel it had a strong political commitment to banks, but instead the stability of the financial system as a whole, might be better from our point of view. Personally I would find that a bit of a relief.” The currency rose.
• 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 62.0 versus 64.0 expected. The currency fell overall.

Wednesday, June 27^th

• 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.4% versus 1.0% expected. The currency rose overall.
• 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales 5.9% versus 1.3% expected.
  

Thursday, June 28^th

• 2:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 12.6 versus last 27.1. The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP Current Account -11.2B versus -8.9B expected. The currency fell.
• All Day EUR EU Economic Summit French President Francois Hollande stated that, “It is very important that we put into motion procedures for immediate action – something that was much hoped for. Bank supervision for a recapitalisation of the banks will take a bit more time, but this will be a lasting move in the right direction. We defined a vision for the euro – for economic and monetary union – saying what we will do together, and there will be greater solidarity at each step in integration. The banking union was the first illustration of this.” The currency fell.
• 10:15am EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 6.19% versus last 6.03% yield and 1.3 versus 1.4 Bid to Cover Ratio expected.
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 386K versus 385K expected. The currency rose overall.

Friday, June 29^th

• All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
• 10:30am GBP BOE Governor King said that, “We need to put it right… both the culture and structure… from excessive levels of compensation to shoddy treatment of customers to the deceitful manipulation of one of the most important interest rates. The future calculation of Libor on “my word is my libor” is now dead.” The currency rose.
• 1:30pm CAD GDP 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.2550 open to a 1.2687 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 80.45 open to an 79.89 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.5584 open to a 1.5690 close

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 1.0047 open to a 1.0241 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0259 open to a 1.0193 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Higher from a 0.7885 open to a 0.8029 close.

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the
week of June 25th – June 29th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what
sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, June 25th

• 3:00pm USD New Home Sales (347K expected, > good for currency)

Tuesday, June 26th

• 9:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (13.1B expected, < good for currency)
• 10:00am GBP Inflation Report Hearings (hawkish = good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (64.0 expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, June 27th

• 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders (1.0% expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales (1.3% expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, June 28th

• 2:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (last 27.1 expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Current Account (-8.9B expected, > good for currency)
• All Day EUR EU Economic Summit (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (385K expected, < good for currency)

Friday, June 29th

• All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
• Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction (last 6.03% yield and 1.4 Bid to Cover Ratio expected, < yield good for currency)
• 10:30am GBP BOE Governor King Speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD GDP (0.2% expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.2588, 1.2623, 1.2668, 1.2747, 1.2857/86, 1.2904, 1.2946/94, 1.3000/55,
1.3133/59, 1.3211/24, 1.3251/92, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433 and 1.3485/95.
Above: 1.3546/68, 1.3614, 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.2519, 1.2496, 1.2456, 1.2435, 1.2329, 1.2288, 1.1938, 1.1876 and 1.1639.
Below: 1.0762, 1.0206, 0.9599/0.9607, 0.9338, 0.8410, 0.8347 and 0.8225.

USDJPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 80.56/61, 80.82, 81.14/46, 81.76/96, 82.01/22, 82.53 and 82.64.
Above: 83.01/83.96, 84.09/17, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51, 85.92, 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and
94.97.

Support:
Initial: 79.96/80.22, 79.74/79, 79.40/42, 79.11, 78.99, 78.66, 78.59, 78.28, 78.06, 77.00,
77.66, 77.89, 76.73/83 and 76.02/41.
Below: 75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5585/1.5601, 1.5624/47, 1.5668, 1.5685/91, 1.5717, 1.5725, 1.5732, 1.5777/
81, 1.5804/07, 1.5890, 1.5907, 1.5921/27, 1.5983/90, 1.6035, 1.6061/92, 1.6109 and
1.6182/98.
Above: 1.6297, 1.6301, 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/
45 and 1.6876.

Support:
Initial: 1.5516, 1.5403/99, 1.5375, 1.5293, 1.5267/77, 1.5267, 1.5232, 1.5123, 1.5066
and 1.5000.
Below: 1.4785/98, 1.4348, 1.4232, 1.3653 and 1.3501.

AUDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0100, 1.0117, 1.0216/66, 1.0303/84, 1.0422, 1.0444/51 and 1.0474/98.
Above: 1.0508, 1.0556, 1.0596, 1.0608/38, 1.0654, 1.0668/86, 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98,
1.0842/54, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 1.0052, 1.0000/18, 0.9925/83, 0.9900, 0.9896, 0.9861/63, 0.9849, 0.9794,
0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9585, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.
Below: 0.9382/86, 0.9341, 0.9329, 0.9221, 0.8915, 0.8734, 0.8578 and 0.8066/81.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0262/1.0311, 1.0334/37, 1.0353, 1.0415/23, 1.0438/39, 1.0481 and 1.0500.
Above: 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial: 1.0232, 1.0220, 1.0206/09, 1.0200, 1.0158/99, 1.0105/42, 1.0018/78, 0.9924/97,
0.9906, 0.9828/99, 0.9789/99 and 0.9724.
Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7906, 0.7914, 0.7955, 0.7979, 0.7993/96, 0.8013, 0.8057/99, 0.8109/35,
0.8204, 0.8227, 0.8240/62, 0.8279 and 0.8294.
Above: 0.8317/95, 0.8405, 0.8420/27, 0.8504, 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.7804/88, 0.7783/95, 0.7723, 0.7605/76, 0.7552/85, 0.7521, 0.7500, 0.7404/67,
0.7369, 0.7342, 0.7321, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.
Below: 0.6945/62, 0.6793, 0.6686, 0.6560, 0.5914/28, 0.5012, 0.4890, 0.4485, 0.4451
and 0.3909.

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of June 18th through June 22nd

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of June 18th through June 22nd, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Sunday, June 17^th

• All Day EUR Greek Parliamentary Election results showed The New Democracy conservative party winning 29.5% of the vote, with 50 seats in parliament. Syriza, the anti-austerity party, came in close behind with 27.1%. PASOK, the socialist party came in with only 12.3%. Forming a coalition will be necessary.

Monday, June 18^th

• All Day ALL G20 Meetings. Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda stated, “I welcome the Greek people’s wise decision. As for G20 discussions from now on, I’d like to particularly urge euro zone to strengthen efforts to prevent (its debt crisis) contagion to the rest of the world.”

Tuesday, June 19^th

• 2:30am AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that, “Renewed pessimism about Europe and weaker economic data in other major countries had led to expectations of further declines in the Australian cash rate, with the market pricing in a reduction of at least 25 basis points at the current meeting, as well as further sizeable reductions over the balance of the year.” The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP CPI 2.8% versus 3.0% expected. The currency rose.
• 10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment -16.9 versus 3.6 expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Building Permits 0.78M versus 0.73M expected. The currency fell overall.
• Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings. The resulting G20 Communique noted that, ““. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said that, “The range of specific actions that are outlined by European leaders in the declaration are quite comprehensive and quite important, and if they’re acted on in a timely manner will be quite effective.”
• 11:45pm NZD Current Account -1.31B versus -1.16B expected. The currency rose.

Wednesday, June 20^th

• 9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 8.1K versus -3.1K expected. The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes vote was 0-0-9, as expected. They noted that, “The Committee agreed that asset purchases remained an effective tool for lowering a range of market interest rates, supporting asset prices and so nominal demand. Nevertheless, a significant current impediment to the economic recovery in the United Kingdom lay in the interaction between the financial threats emanating from the euro area, their implications for bank funding costs, and consequently for lending to businesses and households.”
• 5:30pm USD FOMC Statement noted that, “The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less.” The currency rose overall.
• 7:00pm USD FOMC Economic Projections noted that, “These assessments of the timing of the initial increase of the target federal funds rate and the path of the target federal funds rate are the ones that policymakers view as compatible with their individual economic projections.”
• 7:15pm USD FOMC Press Conference. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said that, “After a thorough discussion of those views and of the ongoing uncertainty and risks surrounding the outlook, the FOMC, as I mentioned, maintained its collective judgement that economic conditions warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate at least through late 2014 and it agreed to provide further support to the economy by continuing the maturity extension program.”
• 11:45pm NZD GDP 1.1% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.

Thursday, June 21^st

• 3:30am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.1 versus last 48.4 expected.
• 9:30am GBP Retail Sales 1.4% versus 1.1% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Core Retail Sales -0.3% versus 0.2% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 387K versus 381K expected. The currency rose overall.
• 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 4.55M versus 4.59M expected.
• 3:00pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -16.6 versus 1.3 expected.

Friday, June 22^nd

• All Day CNY Bank Holiday
• 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 105.3 versus 106.2 expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Core CPI 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EURUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.2738 open to a 1.2525 close.

USDJPY:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 79.92 open to an 80.53 close.

GBPUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.5733 open to a 1.5560 close.

AUDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.0125 open to a 1.0044 close.

USDCAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0200 open to a 1.0264 close.

NZDUSD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.7913 open to a 0.7892 close