Weekly Forex Market Forecast (May 28th – June 1st 2012)

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Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of May 28th – June 1st, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, May 28th

  • 12:10am AUD RBA Governor Stevens speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • All Day CHF Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
  • All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
  • All Day USD Bank Holiday

Tuesday, May 29th

  • 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence (69.6, > good for currency)

Wednesday, May 30th

  • 2:30am AUD Retail Sales (0.2%, > good for currency)
  • Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
  • 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales (0.0%, > good for currency)

Thursday, May 31st

  • 2:00am NZD NBNZ Business Confidence (35.8, > good for currency)
  • 2:30am AUD Building Approvals (0.7%, > good for currency)
  • 2:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure (4.1%, > good for currency)
  • 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (139K, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Prelim GDP (1.9%, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims (369K, > good for currency)
  • All Day EUR Irish Stability Treaty Vote

Friday, June 1st

  • 2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI (52.1, > good for currency)
  • 8:15am CHF Retail Sales (3.6%, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI (49.7, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD GDP (0.3%, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change (152K, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate (8.1%, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (54.1, > good for currency)
  • Tentative USD Treasury Currency Report (hawkish = good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EURUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.2588, 1.2623/65, 1.2857/86, 1.2904, 1.2946/94, 1.3000/55, 1.3133/59, 1.3211/24, 1.3251/92, 1.3321, 1.3376/85, 1.3433 and 1.3485/95.
Above: 1.3546/68, 1.3614, 1.3795/98, 1.3836, 1.3969, 1.4000, 1.4246, 1.4500/17, 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.2496, 1.2456, 1.2329, 1.1938, 1.1876 and 1.1639.
Below: 1.0762, 1.0206, 0.9599/0.9607, 0.9338, 0.8410, 0.8347 and 0.8225.

USDJPY: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 79.96/80.22, 80.56/61, 80.82, 81.14/46, 81.76/96, 82.01/22, 82.53, 82.64, 83.01/09, 83.17, 83.37, 83.77 and 83.96.
Above: 84.09/17, 84.51, 84.80, 85.51, 85.92, 87.11/13, 87.95, 93.77 and 94.97.

Support:
Initial: 79.40/52, 79.05, 78.99, 78.66, 78.06/28, 77.00/89, 76.73/83 and 76.02/41.
Below: 75.94/98, 75.70 and 75.56.

GBPUSD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.5668, 1.5685/91, 1.5717, 1.5732, 1.5781, 1.5804/07, 1.5890, 1.5907, 1.5921/27, 1.5983/90, 1.6035, 1.6061/92, 1.6109 and 1.6182/98.
Above: 1.6297, 1.6301, 1.6452/56, 1.6474, 1.6546, 1.6570, 1.6589/98, 1.6616, 1.6741/45 and 1.6876.

Support:
Initial: 1.5643/47, 1.5637, 1.5624/29, 1.5601, 1.5516/85, 1.5465/99, 1.5422 and 1.5410.
Below: 1.5375, 1.5293, 1.5270/77, 1.5232, 1.5123 and 1.5000. 

AUDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9794, 0.9861/63, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0100/16, 1.0216/66, 1.0303/84, 1.0422, 1.0444/51, 1.0474/98, 1.0508, 1.0556, 1.0596, 1.0608, 1.0627/38, 1.0654, 1.0668/70 and 1.0686.
Above: 1.0751/53, 1.0792/98, 1.0842, 1.0854, 1.1010, 1.1064 and 1.1079.

Support:
Initial: 0.9732, 0.9620/89, 0.9536/41, 0.9500 and 0.9486.
Below: 0.9382/86, 0.9341, 0.9329, 0.9221, 0.8915, 0.8734, 0.8578 and 0.8066/81.

USDCAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0297, 1.0302, 1.0311, 1.0334/37, 1.0415/23, 1.0438, 1.0481 and 1.0500.
Above: 1.0506, 1.0522, 1.0646/56, 1.0669 and 1.0742/85.

Support:
Initial: 1.0262/87, 1.0220/32, 1.0207, 1.0160/99, 1.0105/42, 1.0018/78, 0.9997, 0.9969, 0.9947/54, 0.9924/27, 0.9906, 0.9828/99, 0.9789/99 and 0.9724.
Below: 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZDUSD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.7552/85, 0.7605/76, 0.7723/95, 0.7804/88, 0.7906, 0.7955, 0.7979, 0.7993/96, 0.8057/99, 0.8109/35, 0.8204, 0.8227, 0.8240/62, 0.8279 and 0.8294.
Above: 0.8317/95, 0.8405, 0.8420/27, 0.8504, 0.8571, 0.8764 and 0.8841.

Support:
Initial: 0.7521, 0.7500, 0.7404/67, 0.7369, 0.7342, 0.7321, 0.7189, 0.7115, 0.7099 and 0.7000.
Below: 0.6945/62, 0.6793, 0.6686, 0.6560, 0.5914/28, 0.5012, 0.4890, 0.4485, 0.4451 and 0.3909.

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